Discount: Enjoy £20 off the new Career Guides website with code 'FFT20' at checkout.
Community: Join other candidates securing offers this application season here.
Hey {{first_name}} 👋!
Big week. A lot happening across markets, geopolitics, and central banks simultaneously.
Here's what we're covering:
SpaceX starts trading today — and markets are rallying
A US–Iran peace deal could be signed this weekend
The ECB hiked rates yesterday — and the World Bank just cut its growth forecast
Let's get into it.
1. SpaceX Starts Trading Today
Today is a historic day in financial markets.
SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at an IPO price of $135 per share. That values the company at roughly $1.75 trillion and makes this the largest IPO in financial history. The previous record was Saudi Aramco's $29 billion offering in 2019. SpaceX raised $75 billion in a single listing.
Markets responded positively to the news. US stock index futures are up this morning and Asian equity markets rallied overnight, with Japan's Nikkei surging more than 3%.
The SpaceX listing is doing two things simultaneously. First, it's injecting genuine optimism into technology sentiment at a moment when the broader market has been under pressure from the Iran situation. Second, it's setting the first public market benchmark for a major tech and space company, which has implications for how investors price other large listings expected later this year, namely Anthropic and OpenAI.
The complication worth knowing about.
The business that listed today isn't the straightforward rocket and satellite company most people imagine. In February 2026, SpaceX merged with xAI — Elon Musk's AI company, which owns Grok and the X social media platform — in an all-stock deal. Before that merger, SpaceX was estimated to be profitable. After it, the combined entity reported a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, because xAI is burning cash heavily.
The core of the business, Starlink, the satellite internet service, is genuinely impressive. 10.3 million subscribers across 160 countries. $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025. $4.4 billion in operating profit. That's the investment thesis.
The 94x revenue multiple at the IPO price is only justifiable if you believe Starlink eventually scales to 50, 100, or even 200 million global subscribers. Whether that happens is the question investors are now pricing in real time.
There's also a governance point worth understanding. SpaceX has a dual-class share structure where Musk controls approximately 85% of the voting power. Public shareholders can't vote out the board, block acquisitions, or remove the CEO. In effect, Musk can only be fired by Musk.
That's a different kind of investment proposition from most large public companies — and it'll be a live topic in finance interviews for years.
2. A US–Iran Peace Deal Could Be Signed This Weekend
This is the story that's been moving markets more than anything else this week.
Here's where things stand this morning.
Trump announced on Thursday evening that he's called off planned military strikes on Iran after what he described as a breakthrough in negotiations. He said a peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend, somewhere in Europe. The deal, if it happens, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping — which has been effectively closed since late February when Iran blockaded it in response to the US-Israel strikes.
Markets reacted immediately. Oil prices fell. Equity futures moved higher. The Nikkei surged overnight.
But there's a significant caveat.
Iranian officials haven't confirmed a final agreement. Their foreign ministry said this morning that a final decision hasn't been reached. And in the early hours of today, US forces shot down two Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran fired on a tanker attempting to transit the waterway. So the situation is volatile in both directions.
What's in the reported memorandum of understanding.
According to Iran's state media, the draft MOU includes US commitments to lift sanctions, withdraw forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, and cancel oil sanctions. In return, Iran would reopen the strait to unrestricted shipping and remove mines from the waterway within 30 days.
If that deal actually gets signed and holds, the economic impact would be significant. Oil prices would fall meaningfully from current levels. Shipping insurance costs would drop. Supply chains for Japan, South Korea, and parts of Europe that depend on Gulf oil would stabilise. Inflationary pressures from energy prices would ease — which gives central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, more room to cut rates.
The honest position is that this story has moved in both directions multiple times since February. Markets are currently pricing in a relatively positive resolution. If the deal falls apart again over the weekend, oil moves back up and equity sentiment reverses quickly.
This is the definition of a live, high-stakes macro situation. Worth following closely.
3. The ECB Hiked Rates — and the World Bank Just Cut Its Growth Forecast
Two pieces of macro news from yesterday that connect directly to the Iran situation.
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing its key rate to 2.25%.
This is notable because the ECB spent most of 2024 and 2025 cutting rates as inflation fell toward its 2% target. The hike yesterday is a direct consequence of the Iran war. Higher energy prices are feeding into broader inflation across the eurozone, and the ECB now expects headline inflation to average 3% in 2026 — well above its target — before cooling to 2.3% in 2027 and returning to 2% in 2028.
At the same time, the ECB cut its growth forecast. It now expects eurozone GDP to grow just 0.8% in 2026. That's the combination that central bankers dread most: rising inflation and slowing growth at the same time. It doesn't quite meet the technical definition of stagflation, but it's uncomfortably close to it, and the ECB's language in its statement reflected that tension.
The World Bank cut its global growth forecast to 2.5% for 2026, down from 2.6%, citing the Iran war and ongoing energy supply disruption as the primary cause. The Asian Development Bank added that 15 countries have already asked it for emergency loans as they struggle with fuel shortages. That's a reminder that the Strait of Hormuz crisis isn't just a Western market story. It's a genuine economic crisis for fuel-dependent developing economies across Asia.
Why these two stories connect.
The ECB hiking rates while cutting growth is exactly the kind of difficult environment that tests central banks and governments. Raising rates fights inflation but also slows an already weakening economy. Not raising rates risks inflation becoming entrenched. There's no clean answer.
The Fed faces a similar decision next week. If the Iran peace deal gets signed this weekend and oil prices fall meaningfully, the inflation picture changes fast, and central banks might find themselves in a very different position by July. If the deal falls apart, the pressure to keep rates elevated stays.
This is why the Iran situation is genuinely the most important macro story in the world right now. It doesn't just affect oil prices. It affects inflation, interest rates, growth forecasts, and central bank policy simultaneously, across almost every major economy.
Final Thoughts
Three stories this week, but really one underlying thread.
The Iran war that began on 28th February has done something unusual, it's created a macro environment where almost every major financial decision connects back to a single geopolitical event. Whether the ECB hikes or cuts. Whether the Fed has room to move. Whether SpaceX's $1.75 trillion valuation holds or gets pressured by rising rates. Whether emerging economies can afford fuel imports. Whether global growth forecasts get revised down further.
All of it traces back to the Strait of Hormuz and whether it reopens.
A deal signed this weekend would be one of the most market-moving events of 2026. The absence of a deal keeps the pressure on. Understanding that connection, not just knowing that oil prices move on geopolitical news, but understanding the full chain of consequences, is exactly what strong commercial awareness looks like.
Until next week, keep up the hard work!
Afzal
Ps. Whenever you're ready, take the next step with:
Career Guides (£3.33 each when you buy all 9)
Breaking Into Banking (my debut book)
Finance Fast Track (become offer ready)