Hey {{first_name}} 👋!
My heads fried. I’ve been doing hours on end of interview prep with candidates I’m coaching for S&T (Sales & Trading), IB (Investment Banking), AM (Asset Management). They’ve got HireVues for GS, JP, HSBC, and others. One thing that kept coming up was commercial awareness. So that’s what I’ll cover in today’s newsletter.
This is the cheat sheet you need. I’ve taken the big trends, stripped out the jargon, and shown you how to turn them into interview answers for Investment Banking, Asset Management, and Sales & Trading.
IMPORTANT: Whenever you’re unsure about any of the below, just dig deeper into it by leveraging ChatGPT (or any other AI platform) with a prompt like “Expand on this further, but explain it to me like I’m 15”.
As you’re reading the below, pick 1 or 2 topics that genuinely get you curious or pique your interest. And then use the bullet points around that topic to carry out your own research on the topic such that you can craft and create your own commercial awareness response if asked in interviews.
And always remember, it’s not good enough to simply regurgitate information. You need to have an opinion, a view, some form of commercial angle that shows you’re thinking about how the topic in question can impact the firm, the division, the division’s clients, global markets, etc.
I shared ‘September 2025 Commercial Awareness Topics‘ inside Finance Fast Track this afternoon. Check it out in case helpful! 😃
Here are the 18. topics we’ll cover:
1. Macro & Economic Trends
Global Growth Slowdown
Interest Rates & Inflation
UK Consumer Spending Slump
Energy & AI Power Demand
2. Geopolitics & Fragmentation
Tariffs & Protectionism
Reshoring & Friendshoring
Regulatory Divergence
Energy Security & Government Intervention
3. Technology & AI
Generative AI Adoption
AI’s Infrastructure Effect
Responsible / Regulated AI
4. Regulation, Compliance & ESG
Consumer & Digital Markets Regulation
ESG & Sustainability Rules
Government Intervention in Industry
5. Sector & Market Pressures
Retail Downturn (UK Focus)
Infrastructure & Energy Transition Costs
Consolidation & M&A Trends
Litigation & Disputes
By the end of this, you’ll know not just what’s happening, but why it matters — and how to turn that into sharp, commercial interview answers.
1. Macro & Economic Trends
🌍 Global Growth is Slowing
What’s happening:
The OECD and IMF have both cut their global growth forecasts for 2025–26.
Why? Countries are trading less because tariffs make goods more expensive.
Businesses aren’t investing because borrowing has been expensive for two years.
Consumers (especially in Europe/UK) are nervous about spending.
China isn’t bouncing back strongly: property market is weak, population is ageing.
Why this matters:
IB: Companies are cautious → fewer blockbuster IPOs/M&A. But, distressed deals (buying troubled firms cheaply) will rise.
AM: Safer sectors like healthcare, utilities, and staples become attractive.
S&T: Slow growth = investors shift money around → volatility in FX and commodities (e.g. oil, gold as safe havens).
Interview soundbite:
“Slowing growth means firms are more cautious. That shifts activity from big expansion deals to distressed opportunities, and in markets you see money flow into safe assets.”
💸 Interest Rates & Inflation
What’s happening:
Central banks (Fed, ECB, BoE) have raised rates aggressively since 2021.
Inflation has fallen from double digits but is still above the 2% target.
Prices are being kept up by wages, rent, and energy costs.
Markets think rate cuts will start in mid-2026.
Why this matters:
IB: Companies that borrowed cheaply years ago must now refinance at higher rates → advisory & restructuring work.
AM: Once cuts are confirmed, growth stocks (tech) will rally.
S&T: Bond yields, FX, and rate expectations are huge trading themes — traders live off interest rate news.
Interview soundbite:
“High rates make borrowing more expensive, but once cuts come through, debt issuance and market volumes will rebound.”
🛒 UK Consumer Spending Slump
What’s happening:
Retail sales in the UK have fallen for 12 months straight (worst run since 2008).
Households are squeezed by higher mortgages, bills, and food prices.
Confidence is low — people are saving, not spending.
Why this matters:
IB: Retail businesses are struggling → bankruptcies, restructuring, distressed M&A.
AM: Bad for retailers, better for staples/discount shops.
S&T: Short retail stocks, or trade credit risks (defaults on loans).
Interview soundbite:
“Weak retail sales signal wider stress. It creates distressed opportunities for private equity, and traders short weak consumer names.”
⚡ AI is Driving Energy Demand
What’s happening:
AI data centres need massive power — BP says they could take 10% of new global demand.
At the same time: EVs, electrified heating, and net zero policies all add pressure.
Energy grids are under strain → more renewables and storage investment.
Why this matters:
IB: Financing renewable/infra projects = big pipeline.
AM: Infra and green funds look attractive.
S&T: Energy markets more volatile, especially electricity, natural gas, and metals tied to AI hardware.
Interview soundbite:
“AI isn’t just a tech story. It drives power demand, which creates inflation risks, financing opportunities, and new trading themes in energy.”
2. Geopolitics & Fragmentation
📦 Tariffs & Protectionism
What’s happening (simple):
The US has kept tariffs (import taxes) on lots of goods, especially Chinese products.
The EU and China are clashing over electric vehicles (EVs) and clean tech subsidies.
The UK has been setting its own rules since Brexit, drifting further from EU alignment.
Why it’s happening:
Politicians want to protect local jobs.
Countries worry about depending on rivals for “critical” industries (chips, batteries).
Big power rivalry (US vs China) playing out in trade.
Why it matters:
IB: Clients need help shifting supply chains or buying local producers → more advisory work in “friendlier” countries.
AM: Mexico, Vietnam, India are winning new factories → those markets get investment inflows.
S&T: Trade wars shake up FX (peso, rupee stronger, yuan weaker) and commodity flows (e.g. metals, semis).
Interview soundbite:
“Tariffs aren’t just about blocking goods — they shift capital flows. Mexico, for example, is seeing record foreign investment because companies are diversifying away from China.”
🏭 Reshoring & Friendshoring
What’s happening (simple):
Companies are actively moving supply chains closer to home or to “friendly” countries.
Mexico, India, and Eastern Europe are winning because they’re seen as safer than China.
Why it’s happening:
Covid showed how fragile supply chains are.
US–China tensions make firms nervous.
Governments are paying companies to reshore (e.g. US CHIPS Act for semiconductors).
Why it matters:
IB: Advisory opportunities in helping firms restructure global supply chains, finance new plants, or buy local partners.
AM: New investment opportunities in “beneficiary” markets like Mexico and India.
S&T: Shifts in global trade routes impact currencies (peso, rupee, euro) and commodities (chips, energy, metals).
Interview soundbite:
“Reshoring isn’t about ending globalisation — it’s about smart reconfiguration. Companies now value resilience as much as cost, which creates advisory and trading opportunities.”
⚖️ Regulatory Divergence
What’s happening (simple):
The US, EU, and UK are all writing different rules for AI, ESG, and financial services.
Example: EU wants strict AI rules, US is more relaxed.
ESG rules also differ: Europe is tougher, US is rolling back some requirements.
Why it’s happening:
Political priorities differ:
EU: consumer protection + climate leadership.
US: innovation + less red tape.
UK: somewhere in between post-Brexit.
Why it matters:
IB: Cross-border deals and listings are harder → more need for regulatory structuring advice.
AM: Higher compliance costs = affect company valuations. ESG standards drive capital flows.
S&T: Divergent rules create mispricing (e.g. ESG funds in Europe vs. stripped-back funds in US → arbitrage).
Interview soundbite:
“Different rules mean higher costs and tougher choices. Some firms design for the strictest regime to stay safe, others push back — either way, regulation is shaping commercial strategy.”
🔋 Energy Security & Government Intervention
What’s happening (simple):
Governments are stepping into the energy market directly.
UK launched Great British Energy (a state-owned renewable company).
US and EU are pouring money into local energy projects.
OPEC+ still controlling supply of oil and gas.
Why it’s happening:
Net zero deadlines force countries to decarbonise.
The war in Ukraine showed Europe how risky dependence on Russian gas was.
AI and EV boom means power demand is surging.
Why it matters:
IB: Huge demand for project finance and advisory work on energy/infra projects.
AM: Long-term infra and renewable funds benefit from stable government-backed deals.
S&T: Energy markets more political than ever → traders must follow OPEC cuts and government subsidies closely.
Interview soundbite:
“Energy is no longer just an environmental issue — it’s geopolitical. Governments are now competing directly with private firms, which changes the investment landscape for bankers, asset managers, and traders.”
3. Technology & AI
🤖 Generative AI Adoption
What’s happening (simple):
Companies are now embedding AI into their day-to-day operations.
Examples: law firms use AI for contract reviews, banks test AI in risk monitoring, consulting firms use it for client insights, trading desks experiment with sentiment models.
At the same time, risks remain: hallucinations, bias, privacy, and “black box” decision-making.
Why it’s happening:
Everyone wants cost savings and efficiency.
Competitive pressure: no firm wants to fall behind peers.
AI tools are cheaper and more accessible than ever.
Why it matters:
IB: AI makes due diligence and financial modelling faster, but errors/liability risks mean juniors still have to check everything.
AM: Big for fraud detection, compliance, and portfolio monitoring → helps managers cover more ground.
S&T: AI is being tested to analyse news sentiment, generate trading signals, and even suggest strategies.
Interview soundbite:
“Adopting AI is no longer optional. The firms that stand out will be the ones combining AI’s efficiency with strong governance and oversight.”
⚡ AI’s Infrastructure Effect
What’s happening (simple):
AI isn’t just software. The data centres running AI models need enormous amounts of electricity.
BP and the IEA say AI data centres alone could take ~10% of new global energy demand.
This adds stress to energy grids and speeds up investment in renewables, storage, and power infrastructure.
Why it’s happening:
Explosion of AI workloads (training and running models needs lots of compute).
EVs and electrified heating also driving electricity demand.
Net zero targets forcing governments to expand renewables.
Why it matters:
IB: Huge pipeline of advisory and financing deals in renewables, storage, and data centre projects.
AM: Renewable infra funds and green bonds become more attractive.
S&T: Traders watch energy and commodity markets closely — higher volatility in electricity, natural gas, and metals (copper, lithium) linked to AI and EVs.
Interview soundbite:
“Everyone talks about AI boosting productivity, but the second-order effect is its massive power demand. That creates both inflationary risks and new investment themes in energy and infrastructure.”
🛡 Responsible / Regulated AI
What’s happening (simple):
Governments are rushing to regulate AI, but they all take different approaches.
EU is pushing strict “AI Act” rules (transparency, bias controls, liability).
US is lighter touch — more about encouraging innovation.
UK is somewhere in the middle, aiming to be “pro-innovation but safe.”
Concerns: deepfakes, bias in hiring/lending, IP/copyright for AI-generated content.
Why it’s happening:
Governments want to protect consumers from harm.
National security concerns (AI in cyberwarfare, misinformation).
Lawsuits over IP rights and liability.
Why it matters:
IB: Cross-border deals harder — companies must comply with different AI rules in each region. Advisory needed for structuring and risk management.
AM: Compliance costs feed directly into company valuations. If a US firm can deploy AI cheaply but an EU firm can’t, that changes investment decisions.
S&T: Regulatory announcements swing tech stocks → uncertainty = volatility and trading opportunities.
Interview soundbite:
“Regulation is moving almost as fast as adoption. Firms need both innovation and compliance strategies, and the split between US and EU approaches creates real investment and trading implications.”
4. Regulation, Compliance & ESG
📲 Consumer & Digital Markets Regulation
What’s happening (simple):
The UK is tightening rules on subscriptions (making it harder for firms to trap customers in “auto-renew” contracts).
They’re also cracking down on misleading pricing and how digital platforms treat users.
The EU has its Digital Markets Act (DMA) already in force — stricter on Big Tech dominance.
The US is taking a lighter approach — less heavy-handed regulation.
Why it’s happening:
Political push to protect consumers.
Rising public frustration with “unfair” practices by subscription companies and tech giants.
Concerns about competition — smaller players being squeezed out.
Why it matters:
IB: Companies may restructure, spin off, or adapt business models → advisory work.
AM: Firms with heavy reliance on auto-renew or digital advertising could see margins squeezed → impacts valuations.
S&T: Regulatory shocks create volatility in Big Tech stocks (e.g. Meta, Google, Amazon).
Interview Soundbite:
“A company operating in both the EU and UK might have to design customer journeys differently to stay compliant — that means higher costs and strategy changes.”
🌱 ESG & Sustainability Regulation
What’s happening (simple):
The EU is pushing ahead with tough sustainability rules:
Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive → firms must check supply chains for human rights and environmental abuses.
Product Passports being tested — basically digital tags that track where goods come from and how sustainable they are.
The UK is looser for now, but global investors still demand high ESG standards.
Why it’s happening:
Pressure from climate change and social movements.
Europe positioning itself as the leader in sustainability.
Investors demanding real evidence, not “greenwashing.”
Why it matters:
IB: Clients need advice on compliance and reporting structures — ESG due diligence now part of M&A deals.
AM: ESG criteria are now mandatory in many funds → impacts where capital flows.
S&T: ESG products (green bonds, carbon credits) are growing markets for trading desks.
Interview Soundbite:
“ESG is shifting from voluntary to mandatory. Firms can’t just talk the talk anymore — they need hard evidence to secure investment and avoid fines.”
🏭 Government Intervention in Industry
What’s happening (simple):
The UK passed the Steel Industry (Special Measures) Act, allowing the state to intervene in steel companies’ operations if they’re seen as strategically important.
The UK also launched Great British Energy — a new state-owned company to develop clean energy.
Across the EU and US, governments are actively funding or protecting industries tied to net zero, energy, or national security.
Why it’s happening:
Governments see industries like steel, energy, and tech as vital for national security.
Net zero commitments require huge infrastructure investment — too big for private sector alone.
Rising geopolitical risk means states want more control over “strategic” assets.
Why it matters:
IB: More opportunities for public-private partnerships and project finance advisory.
AM: State-backed projects create stable, long-term investment pipelines in infra/renewables.
S&T: Policy announcements (e.g. subsidies, tariffs) can instantly move commodity and energy markets.
Interview Soundbite:
“Governments are back in the boardroom. Not every business decision is purely market-driven anymore — political priorities increasingly shape opportunities for banks, investors, and traders.”
5. Sector & Market-Specific Pressures
🛒 Retail Downturn (UK Focus)
What’s happening:
UK retail sales have fallen for 12 straight months — the worst slump since the 2008 crisis.
Shoppers are cutting back on non-essentials.
Discount/value retailers (e.g. Aldi, Primark) are gaining share.
Why it’s happening:
Rising mortgage costs (as fixed-rate deals reset higher).
Energy bills and food prices still elevated after the last two years.
Weak consumer confidence due to broader economic uncertainty.
Why it matters:
IB: Retail bankruptcies, distressed M&A, and restructuring mandates will increase.
AM: Consumer discretionary stocks are unattractive; investors tilt toward defensive sectors.
S&T: Opportunities to short retailers, trade credit default swaps, or hedge against rising delinquencies.
Interview Soundbite:
“Retail weakness is often a warning sign for the wider economy — and it creates distressed opportunities for bankers, cautious positioning for asset managers, and trading plays in consumer names.”
⚡ Infrastructure & Energy Transition Costs
What’s happening:
Companies are facing massive upfront costs to decarbonise, electrify operations, and adapt supply chains.
Grid upgrades, EV charging networks, and large transport projects are expanding but face financing challenges.
Why it’s happening:
Governments have net zero targets with tight deadlines.
The surge in AI and EV demand is straining energy infrastructure.
Investors want companies to show climate responsibility.
Why it matters:
IB: Financing demand is huge, but clients worry about overleveraging → advisory and structured finance work.
AM: Long-term infra and renewable projects are attractive investments, but short-term cash flow strain could weigh on corporates.
S&T: Commodities tied to transition (lithium, copper, nickel, natural gas) are hot trading themes.
Interview Soundbite:
“The transition is unavoidable, but the question is: how do firms fund it without breaking their balance sheets? That’s where financing and trading opportunities come in.”
🤝 Consolidation & M&A Trends
What’s happening:
With organic growth harder to achieve, companies are turning to mergers to gain scale.
Sectors like healthcare, tech, and energy are particularly active.
Distressed firms are being picked up at bargain prices.
Why it’s happening:
Slow growth = firms need synergies to cut costs.
Diversification = companies want broader revenue streams.
Financial stress = distressed companies more available for acquisition.
Why it matters:
IB: Advisory pipelines shift toward consolidation and distressed M&A.
AM: Consolidation reshapes sectors, creating winners and losers.
S&T: Deal announcements create volatility in target and acquirer stocks.
Interview Soundbite:
“Deal activity hasn’t died — it’s shifted. In slowdowns, you see more consolidation plays and distressed transactions.”
⚖️ Litigation & Disputes
What’s happening:
Companies are facing more disputes: over contracts, ESG commitments, regulatory breaches, and insolvency.
Law firms are seeing increased demand for litigation work.
Why it’s happening:
Volatile environment means more broken deals and failed contracts.
Diverging global regulations add complexity.
Financial stress leads to more insolvencies → lawsuits between creditors, suppliers, and firms.
Why it matters:
IB: Litigation risk makes deals more complex — clients need robust advisory.
AM: Legal risks increase costs and can hit valuations.
S&T: Disputes and regulatory fines can spark sharp price moves in affected sectors.
Interview Soundbite:
“In downturns, disputes and litigation always spike — creating advisory opportunities but also raising risks for corporates and investors.”
Final Word
For interviews:
Always simplify. “Global growth slowing” is enough to make the point — don’t drown in data.
Always connect it back. “What does this mean for banks, asset managers, traders?”
Always share an opinion. Even if it’s basic (“I think rate cuts will boost issuance”), it shows you can think commercially.
Peace!
Afzal
Founder, Finance Fast Track
Author, Breaking Into Banking