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Here’s what’s going on in markets ahead of November. Leverage the below in particular for your upcoming interviews and assessment centres. Want direct help from me? Join my private community here.
1. Interest Rate Cuts and Slowing Global Growth
What’s happening (in plain English):
After two years of high interest rates to fight inflation, central banks are now starting to ease up.
The U.S. Federal Reserve just cut its rate to 3.75–4.00%, while the Bank of England has kept its rate steady at 4.0% after a previous cut earlier in the year.
Inflation has cooled from post-COVID highs — energy prices are stable and supply chains are smoother — but growth remains weak.
The IMF expects global GDP growth of just 3.1% in 2026, lower than before the pandemic.
In short: prices are under control, but economies are losing momentum.
Why it’s happening:
The global economy is cooling off after aggressive tightening cycles.
High borrowing costs have slowed business investment and consumer spending.
Governments are under pressure to prevent recessions ahead of 2026 election cycles.
Central banks want a “soft landing” — controlling inflation without crushing growth.
Why it matters:
Investment Banking (IB):
Cheaper borrowing could restart deal activity. Companies that paused M&A or IPO plans may return as financing becomes more affordable. But weaker growth means valuations remain sensitive, so deal structures will get more cautious.Asset Management (AM):
Lower yields push investors toward riskier assets (equities, corporate bonds). Portfolio managers will reposition — shifting away from cash and into growth or credit.Sales & Trading (S&T):
Traders react to every rate signal — yield curves, FX rates, and equities all move sharply. Lower rates could weaken the USD and lift risk assets temporarily, but volatility will stay high.
Interview Soundbite:
“Central banks are cutting rates to support fragile growth. It’s positive for deal flow and refinancing, but it also signals economic weakness. The real challenge for financial firms is balancing cheaper funding with slower demand and more market volatility.”
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2. Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Fragmentation
What’s happening:
Globalisation isn’t dead, but it’s changing shape.
The recent Trump–Xi meeting cooled some tensions, yet global trade remains subdued — the WTO expects just 2.4% trade growth in 2025.
Firms are diversifying production — moving factories from China to “friendlier” countries such as India, Vietnam, and Mexico, a process known as friendshoring.
Meanwhile, conflict zones (Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, and the Red Sea shipping route) continue to disrupt supply chains and raise uncertainty.
Why it’s happening:
Countries want to reduce dependence on politically sensitive regions.
Governments are incentivising local manufacturing to protect jobs and national security.
The pandemic and wars exposed how fragile global supply chains can be.
Why it matters:
Investment Banking:
Clients are seeking financing to relocate or expand in safer regions. Advisory work is rising around supply chain reconfiguration, cross-border joint ventures, and regional infrastructure.Asset Management:
Investors are shifting capital toward “beneficiary” countries — India, Mexico, and Vietnam have become hotspots for FDI (foreign direct investment). ETFs and funds tracking these markets are performing strongly.Sales & Trading:
Trade fragmentation changes FX and commodity flows. Currencies like the Mexican peso and Indian rupee strengthen as manufacturing grows, while raw material exporters face volatility.
Interview Soundbite:
“Even though trade tensions have cooled, globalisation is evolving. Firms are reconfiguring supply chains for resilience, not just cost, and that’s redirecting investment toward markets like India, Mexico, and Vietnam.”
3. The Energy Transition and Commodity Pressures
What’s happening:
The World Bank expects overall commodity prices to drop by about 7% in both 2025 and 2026, due to weak demand and ample oil supply.
But not all commodities are falling — copper just hit a record high of $11,200 per ton, thanks to demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and data centres.
So while traditional energy markets (oil, gas) soften, “transition metals” are surging.
Governments are also doubling down on renewables investment — from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act to the UK’s new Great British Energy initiative.
Why it’s happening:
Global growth is weak → oil demand softens.
Clean energy transition → huge demand for metals like copper, lithium, and nickel.
Supply disruptions in mining → prices stay high for critical materials.
Why it matters:
Investment Banking:
Energy transition deals are booming. Banks are financing renewable projects, advising on divestments from fossil fuels, and structuring green bonds.Asset Management:
Energy funds are rebalancing: oil exposure down, renewables and battery tech up. Investors are looking for long-term growth plays in green infrastructure.Sales & Trading:
Commodity traders face a two-speed market — oversupplied oil vs. undersupplied metals. Energy transition demand drives volatility, creating trading opportunities.
Interview Soundbite:
“Commodity markets are splitting in two. Oil prices are falling on weak demand, but metals like copper are at record highs because of clean-energy investment. This shift defines where the next wave of capital and opportunity will flow.”
4. The Rise of AI and Digital Transformation
What’s happening:
AI is no longer a buzzword — it’s embedded into daily business.
From finance to healthcare, firms are using AI to cut costs, automate analysis, and boost productivity.
But AI’s hidden side is energy: data centres are consuming massive amounts of power, becoming one of the fastest-growing contributors to electricity demand worldwide.
At the same time, regulation is catching up:
The EU AI Act introduces strict rules around transparency and data use.
The UK’s AI Safety Summit focused on governance and risk prevention.
The U.S. is drafting AI accountability frameworks to balance innovation with consumer protection.
Why it’s happening:
AI models have become exponentially more powerful and accessible.
Competitive pressure — “adopt AI or fall behind.”
Public concern around misinformation, bias, and data privacy.
Why it matters:
Investment Banking:
AI is being used for financial modelling, due diligence, and document review — improving efficiency but raising liability questions.Asset Management:
Portfolio optimisation, risk modelling, and client customisation are being transformed by AI, but transparency and auditability are becoming regulatory requirements.Sales & Trading:
Algorithmic trading and sentiment analysis are increasingly AI-driven. But these systems can amplify volatility or bias if not controlled.
Interview Soundbite:
“AI is transforming how finance operates — from risk analysis to trading. It’s boosting efficiency but also creating new regulatory and ethical challenges. The winners will be those who innovate responsibly.”
5. ESG Regulation and Sustainable Finance
What’s happening:
ESG regulation is tightening globally.
The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive now requires companies to monitor their full supply chain for environmental and human-rights risks.
The UK’s sustainability reporting rules push for more detailed climate disclosure.
Regulators are cracking down on greenwashing — misleading claims about sustainability — with asset managers already fined.
Governments are directly funding renewable energy projects (e.g. Great British Energy) to accelerate the net-zero transition.
Why it’s happening:
Investors and the public are demanding genuine accountability.
Climate change is an urgent risk — regulators want measurable progress, not promises.
Green investment is now a political and economic priority.
Why it matters:
Investment Banking:
ESG-linked financing and green bonds are surging. Clients need help aligning with disclosure standards. Banks also face higher reputational risk if due diligence fails.Asset Management:
ESG has become a mandatory consideration for institutional investors. Funds are being built entirely around climate and social impact metrics.Sales & Trading:
New markets are emerging — carbon credits, sustainability-linked derivatives, and renewable energy certificates are all tradable assets.
Interview Soundbite:
“ESG has moved from a marketing buzzword to a regulatory requirement. Firms that take it seriously will attract long-term capital, while those that don’t risk fines, outflows, and reputational damage.”
Final Takeaway
If you want to stand out in interviews this month:
Understand the story → what’s happening and why.
Link it back to the division → how it affects deals, investments, or markets.
End with an opinion → what you think happens next.
That’s how you turn commercial awareness into commercial intelligence. Until next time, peace!
Afzal
Founder, Finance Fast Track
Author, Breaking Into Banking