Hey {{first_name}} 👋!

In this week’s issue we’ll cover 6 major themes shaping markets right now.

But in the next issue later this week (Thursday 7th), we’re going to go deep on just one (vote your choice below).

Not surface-level. A proper breakdown you can use in interviews.

You get to choose the topic. Cast your vote in this poll:

I’ll take the top result and turn it into a full deep dive later this week.

With that, let’s get into todays newsletter!

If you understand one thing in markets right now, make it this. Everything still comes back to interest rates.

Over the past few years, central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England raised rates aggressively to bring inflation under control. That worked to an extent. Inflation has come down. But it is not falling quickly enough, especially in areas like wages and services.

That is why markets keep moving. At the start of the year, investors expected multiple rate cuts. Now expectations have shifted. Fewer cuts, and later than expected. That uncertainty is driving bond yields, equity valuations, and overall market sentiment.

From a finance perspective, this matters because rates control activity. When borrowing is expensive, companies delay deals and expansion. When rates fall, M&A and IPO activity tends to pick up. So right now we are in a holding phase. High enough to slow things down, not low enough to unlock the next cycle.

If rates are the pressure on markets, AI is the thing pushing the other way.

Companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Alphabet are investing heavily into artificial intelligence. Not just in theory. Real money is being deployed into chips, data centres, and cloud infrastructure.

This is important because it is not just a tech trend. It is a full investment cycle. Companies are spending billions to build the infrastructure needed to run AI at scale. Markets are rewarding that because it signals future growth.

At the same time, there is a growing debate. Some investors believe this is the start of a long-term transformation. Others think valuations are getting stretched and returns are still uncertain. That tension is why tech stocks are moving so much around earnings and guidance.

Private credit is one of the biggest shifts happening in finance, but most students do not talk about it.

Instead of borrowing from banks, companies are increasingly borrowing from large investment firms like Blackstone and Apollo Global Management. This happened because banks pulled back from certain types of lending after stricter regulation. Private credit stepped in and filled that gap.

At the same time, deal activity is starting to stabilise. Over the past couple of years, M&A and IPOs dropped because higher interest rates made financing expensive and reduced valuations. Now we are seeing early signs of recovery, but it is still cautious.

There is a backlog of companies waiting to go public, especially in tech. But a full recovery depends on interest rates coming down. Until then, deals will continue, but in a more selective and disciplined way.

If you’re a decision maker at your company, you need to be on the bleeding edge of, well, everything. But before you go signing up for seminars, conferences, lunch ‘n learns, and all that jazz, just know there’s a far better (and simpler) way: Subscribing to The Deep View.

This daily newsletter condenses everything you need to know about the latest and greatest AI developments into a 5-minute read. Squeeze it into your morning coffee break and before you know it, you’ll be an expert too.

Subscribe right here. It’s totally free, wildly informative, and trusted by 600,000+ readers at Google, Meta, Microsoft, and beyond.

China is not collapsing, but it is changing.

For years, its economy was driven by real estate and construction. That model is now under pressure. Property developers are heavily indebted, demand has slowed, and confidence has fallen. That is weighing on growth.

In response, China is trying to shift towards technology, manufacturing, and innovation. Less reliance on property, more focus on sectors like AI and semiconductors. This is a structural change, not a short-term fix.

This matters globally because China is such a large part of the world economy. Slower growth affects commodities, global demand, and multinational companies. Investors are watching closely to see whether this transition can be managed smoothly or whether growth remains weak.

Geopolitics is the layer that can disrupt everything at any time.

Tensions linked to the Russia–Ukraine War and instability around key trade routes like the Red Sea continue to create uncertainty. Markets are particularly sensitive to anything that could affect oil supply.

The chain reaction is important. If supply is at risk, oil prices rise. That feeds into inflation. And if inflation rises, central banks are less likely to cut rates. So geopolitical events can quickly feed back into the core driver of markets, which is interest rates.

Right now, we are not in a crisis, but we are in a constant state of uncertainty. That is why markets are reacting quickly to headlines and why volatility remains elevated.

For the past couple of years, the answer has been simple.

No.

Deal activity dropped sharply after interest rates rose. Borrowing became more expensive, valuations came down, and uncertainty increased. So companies paused. Fewer IPOs, fewer acquisitions, and weaker revenues across investment banking.

Now, the narrative is starting to shift slightly.

We are seeing early signs of activity coming back. More discussions around mergers and acquisitions. More companies preparing for IPOs. But it is still cautious. Most firms are waiting for a clearer signal that conditions have improved before fully committing.

The key factor is still interest rates. If rates begin to fall, financing becomes cheaper, confidence improves, and deal activity tends to increase. That is when investment banking really picks up. Until then, we are in a transition phase. Activity is improving, but not fully back.

For students, this matters more than it seems. Deal activity directly impacts hiring, deal exposure, and opportunities within banks. So understanding where we are in the cycle helps you explain not just markets, but also the industry you are trying to enter.

If you step back, all six of these themes connect more than most people realise.

Interest rates are still the foundation. They influence borrowing, valuations, and overall activity. AI is the main growth story pushing markets forward despite that pressure. Private credit is reshaping how companies access financing. China is going through a structural shift that affects global demand. Geopolitics adds a layer of uncertainty, especially through oil and inflation. And deal activity is reacting to all of it in real time.

That’s the bigger picture.

Most candidates look at these as separate headlines. The stronger ones understand how they link together.

So when you're preparing, don’t try to memorise everything.

Focus on a few key ideas:

If you can explain that clearly, you're already ahead.

Before you go, quick reminder.

I’m putting out a deep dive later this week. One topic, properly broken down so you can actually use it in interviews.

Scroll back up and vote in the poll.

I’ll take the top result and turn it into the next issue.

That’s all for now. Keep an eye out for Thursdays newsletter!

Peace!

Afzal